So this is what Canada looks like today.

[snowywolfowl]

Dark blue are the Conservatives, orange ridings are NDP, red ridings are Liberal, the two light blue ridings in Quebec are what remains of the Bloc Quebecois, and if you look really hard at the bottom of Vancouver Island you can see the sole Green Party riding marked out in green.



So, what are the trends?

Well lets look at the non-surprises, namely the fact Alberta, Saskatchewan, most of BC and almost all of Southern Manitoba went Conservative. This area is the ideological homeland of the Reform Party that emerged as the dominant form of Canadian political conservatism in the early/mid 1990s and is the location where the Conservatives base is located.  A showing this strong there is no surprise. However, Southern Ontario and New Brunswick jumped in this time which went a long way to the Conservative majority. Those are areas where Liberals historically have done very well in the past so that was a huge blow to them.

The NDP made huge gains this election at the direct expense of the Bloc Quebecois (who historically have owned Quebec and only had to worry about the Liberals as competition) and Liberals. Add in some other gains in BC and a smattering of ridings in almost every province (they took one of the three northern territories and were only shut out in Saskatchewan, Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland & Labrador) and the NDP's claim that Canada chose them to be responsible for Canada's opposition are valid.

So, long term winners and losers? Obviously the Conservatives. The Tories finally have their much sought after majority and can now govern as they wish, although the other winner, the NDP, will likely use its newfound clout to get some important work done on job creation, pensions and healthcare. Since that last point is always a political hot button in Canada I expect most of their successes to be there simply because the Conservatives can't ignore that.

The Bloc Quebecois may be done. The dream of separating from Canada is really just that, a dream. Once you factor in the economic costs of going alone most Quebecois realize that they are getting a much higher standard of living as Canadians than what they could get on their own. Still, since the dream will likely never die some new separatist party will emerge in its place. Whether its successful or not in gaining electoral office only time will tell.

As for the Liberals, they are in trouble. The Liberal Party likes to see itself as the natural governing party of Canada, and one that is naturally positioned in the centre. That's a fantastic theory but over the last half decade both the Conservatives and NDP have been very successful at co-opting much of their centrist positions for themselves. When you consider that the Liberals haven't had a leader as strong or as charismatic as either Harper or Layton since Jean Chretien its no wonder they appear to be in big trouble. Whether or not the Liberals come back as a party, or if they ultimately decide to "Unite the Left" in a mirror image of what the Reform and Progressive Conservative parties did to take on the Liberals during Chretien's governments will remain to be seen, and will be dependent on the skill and charisma of their next set of leaders.

Only time will tell.

Comments

[kathyrene.livejournal.com]

It's going to be interesting the next few years. As a Quebec resident I won't lose any sleep over what happened to the Bloc party but as you say some other group will likely rise up.

As a public servant living in the National Capital Region I do worry about a conservative majority. There's been a lot of talk about cut back to the public service in terms of jobs. I work for Indian & Northern Affairs Canada - there is much worry over the loss of a lot of our programs too.

The riding I live in ousted the Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon in favour of NDP as well as most of the ridings in our part of Quebec. We'll be penalized for sure one way or another. Hard to believe the Liberals did so poorly yet Iggy should have recognized this a long time ago and stepped down. Interesting times for sure and the chatter around the water cooler isn't very optimistic. Can't wait for the next Rick Mercer report and rant though. :)

[snowywolfowl.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I hear you about being punished for not voting Conservative. I know Harper spoke about governing for all Canadians but considering his track record so far I'm skeptical it will be anything more than just words once everyone gets back to the house. Here's hoping Layton can keep him honest for the next four years or so.

As for the Liberals, I'm not sure what will happen there. If they can't stake out distinct territory from the Conservatives and the NDP they're going to go the way of the dinosaurs, dodos, and Progressive Conservatives.

[kathyrene.livejournal.com]

'Dinosaurs and dodos' that's exactly what I replied with this a.m. when a colleague asked 'so what's a Liberal?'. I also said it's an aging man wearing a buckskin jacket paddling a red canoe in a freshwater lake. I think Justin Trudeau is a bit too young but like his father before him may be just the saviour to revive the party. Too bad it could be for all the wrong reasons. I think it'll depend on just how sick of the Conservatives people will be in 4 years time. The Trudeau years evoke a lot of nostalgia among a still large demographic of voters. Younger voters may just get caught up in the wave - a similar phenomena like the orange crush wave we saw last night.